市场耐心等待NFP非农数据
今日汇评
因为急切等待今日下午稍晚时候才会发布的美国就业数据，欧洲市场昨天显得并不安定。尽管发布的失业救济金数据出乎意料地存在一定微弱增长，市场还是感到有些过于战战兢兢。资本市场和货币市场都显得非常沉闷。美国早前的新闻无疑将影响货币兑换率发展趋势，而这一发展趋势如大家所料，并不会使亚洲市场受挫其中就有香港今天由于公休日闭市的原因存在。尽管如此，日元却是产生了一定程度下滑。投资者对于一周以来日本做出的悲观预测感到颇为沮丧。由于担忧美国需求正在减少，日本商业信心也呈现出下降趋势。昨日发布的新闻以及几个月来的市场预期并未能挽救日元，昨天日元兑换美元价格达到Y102.69一美元。对于从各个层面来说都是经济增长关键驱动力的商业投资，日本银行认为也呈现减少趋势。伴随增长的消费者指数，BOJ日本央行同时今年仍然需要面临另一项主要挑战。使局势更为复杂的是，高盛集团已决定降低日本汽车产业投资力度。投资银行担心日本汽车产业将由于预期的美国需求量下降遭受最严重伤害。亚洲市场正在期待相关美国数据发布，以确定新的未来展望观点或将接受不可避免的伤害。美国经济危机是否可能出现转机，能否给亚洲经济铺开全新发展天地？通货膨胀风险正在上涨。同时上涨的食品和燃油价格可能会导致该地区多个政府的担忧。有些分析认识表示，他们担心该地区欠缺弹性的外汇兑换率将可能进一步导致潜在危机的发生。但是过去十年该地区吸收的投资已构成其强坚实的宏观经济根基。此外，亚洲各银行尚未受到次贷危机风险影响，这可能正式引起当前美元危机的火星。澳大利亚很多担忧美国次贷危机影响的人士已通过投入一定量投资（超过400万澳元）以撤回担保债务凭证，镇压抵押市场。
欧元美元--行情看跌，市场疲软导致该指数进一步下滑至1.5510和1.5456，甚至有可能降至1.5341.该货币对需回复至1.5704和1.5726才可缓解当前压力。突破此水平，欧元美元指数将可能反弹至1.5806-17和1.5897-1.5905.
美元日元--可能会出现更有意义的反弹，达到103.60。若能突破此阻力区域，将有可能达到104.95和/或108.60。由于在96.26和95.77之前由97.67对98.45提供支撑。只要能保持97.55-67这一水平, 则未来数日将持续呈现上扬趋势。
英镑美元--下一步走向尚不十分明细，但本周走势表显示了更多的下滑的态势，曾一度达到1.9722-1.9735。假如这两点让位，则1.9610-15和1.9337-63也将危险。在上扬趋势中，最初的阻力位在1，9980，之后是2.0090进而达到了2.0193。在此之上，2.0275和2.0400将再度陷入风险状态。
Asian markets were uneasy yesterday as they await the figure on US job creation due out later this afternoon. The markets were a little jittery nonetheless in the wake of the unexpected rise in unemployment benefit claims that were posted. Equity markets and currency markets were morose. The effect of the preliminary news from the US that will no doubt affect the direction of the interest rates did not afflict the Asian markets as could have been expected. Some of this was du to that fact that Hong Kong was closed for public holiday. The Yen declined notwithstanding. Investors are still upset by the gloomy predictions that have been coming out of the Japan over the whole week. The Japanese business confidence is down as fear grows of a slowdown in US demand. The news yesterday and the markets expectations for the months to come have not come to rescue the yen, which fell yesterday to Y102.69 per dollar. The Banks of Japan also had to recognize that there was a slowdown in the business investment which in all circumstances remains a key driver of economic growth. Along with a rise in Consumer prices the BoJ has clearly a major challenge for the remaining of the year. To make matters more difficult Goldman Sachs has decided to downgrade the Japanese car manufacturing industry. The Investment bank fears that the car industry in Japan will suffer the most from the expected decline in US demand. Markets in Asia are now awaiting the figures to come out of the US to perhaps define a new out look or affirm the inevitable. Will the economic crisis currently being battled in the US find new grounds in Asia ? Inflation risks are mounting. The mounting food and fuel prices could start worrying various government of the region. There are some analysts who are worried about the lack of flexible exchange rates in the region that could be a breeding ground for a potential crisis to start. However there are signs that investment in the region in the last ten years have build strong macroeconomic foundations. Moreover, it appears that the banks in the Asia have had little exposure to the subprime crisis, precisely the spark that ignited the current US crisis. Australia, where many feared a subprime crisis on the measure of the US, has crackdown on mortgage markets by making the necessary investment (over A$400 m) to withdraw the toxic many collateral debt obligation.
